Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE +170 GT -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | GT -2.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -0.8 (+9.2) | 138.5 (+19.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -0.0 (+10.0) | 134.3 (+23.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GT -1.3 (+11.3) | 134.9 (+23.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -0.4 (+9.6) | 139.9 (+18.1) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | 1.6 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#194) | 1.11 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#146) | 1.18 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#201) | 0.538 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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