Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +110 BALL -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +18 | 92 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -1.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-52.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.6 (+17.4) | 136.2 (-44.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.0 (+17.0) | 136.3 (-44.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.4 (+16.6) | 136.6 (-44.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -1.0 (+17.0) | 135.8 (-43.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#353) | -11.4 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.16 (#363) | -2.49 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.32 (#363) | -3.68 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.291 (#362) | 0.296 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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