Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Away covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DART +26 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -12.6 (-38.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -8.2 (-34.2) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -9.6 (-35.6) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -11.3 (-37.3) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -11.1 (-37.1) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#279) | -13.9 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#279) | -4.02 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#305) | -6.21 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#310) | 0.240 (#365) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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