All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · November 29, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread USU -17.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money USU -2800 / MTST +1300
Model Predictions
Spread Total USU win
Actual USU +3 165 Won
Massey USU -17.6 (-14.6)
Massey Totals 146.2 (+18.8)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML USU -15.7 (-12.7) 144.1 (+20.9) 88%
Model 4 ML USU -17.6 (-14.6) 141.2 (+23.8) 89%
Model 3 ML USU -16.3 (-13.3) 143.0 (+22.0) 88%
Baseline ML USU -15.0 (-12.0) 142.9 (+22.1) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USU MTST
Overall 29-7 18-14
Conference 15-5 12-6
Home 14-1 11-2
Away 7-5 6-11
Neutral 8-1 0-1
Last 5 5-0 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 81.4 75.7
Avg Pts Against 71.2 73.5
Massey 14.4 (#27) 2.4 (#133)
Bradley-Terry 3.55 (#11) -1.49 (#297)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.40 (#10) -2.34 (#301)
RPI 0.680 (#7) 0.469 (#217)
Shooting & Four Factors USU MTST
FG% 52.6% 46.6%
3PT% 36.1% 31.9%
REB / G 36.6 30.0
OREB / G 11.2 7.4
AST / TO 1.40 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.4% 53.1%
TOV% 18.3% 15.6%
ORB% 36.4% 22.6%
FT Rate 30.3% 15.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.2% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 22.6% 15.9%
DRB% 70.9% 71.1%
Opp FT Rate 26.3% 29.3%

Game Analysis

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