Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -205 LEM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -1.3 (-14.3) | 148.3 (-9.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LAF -0.2 (-13.2) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | LAF -0.5 (-13.5) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.2 (-14.2) | 150.7 (-11.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#341) | -8.5 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.64 (#356) | -1.65 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.80 (#358) | -2.42 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.306 (#360) | 0.408 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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