Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -40.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +47 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -34.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -27.6 (+19.4) | 138.5 (+32.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -24.7 (+22.3) | 136.5 (+34.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -33.3 (+13.7) | 136.8 (+34.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -34.9 (+12.1) | 134.8 (+36.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#8) | -9.3 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#2) | -2.24 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.19 (#2) | -4.20 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.696 (#7) | 0.371 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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