Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -25.5 Away covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -18.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -17.1 (+7.9) | 155.5 (+7.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -17.0 (+8.0) | 158.1 (+4.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -19.9 (+5.1) | 155.6 (+7.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -22.7 (+2.3) | 155.5 (+7.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#47) | -1.4 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#46) | -1.12 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#54) | -1.58 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#80) | 0.406 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 47.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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