Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN +550 INST -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | INST -10.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.4 (+14.4) | 141.6 (+13.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -7.0 (+14.0) | 137.9 (+17.1) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -8.9 (+15.9) | 139.4 (+15.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -8.1 (+15.1) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 5-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-18 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#328) | -1.2 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#327) | 0.64 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#323) | 0.80 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#293) | 0.525 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 27.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 57.0% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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