Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -2.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -9.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -7.7 (+4.3) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PENN -4.8 (+7.2) | 147.8 (-5.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | PENN -6.8 (+5.2) | 144.5 (-2.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -7.6 (+4.4) | 146.3 (-4.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#199) | -5.5 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#166) | -0.27 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#158) | -0.74 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#223) | 0.439 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.7% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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