Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -5000 EMU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -15.9 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -16.4 (-24.4) | 140.3 (-20.3) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -14.4 (-22.4) | 137.0 (-17.0) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -16.2 (-24.2) | 137.1 (-17.1) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -15.3 (-23.3) | 141.6 (-21.6) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#102) | -5.2 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#77) | -0.87 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#64) | -1.27 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#75) | 0.417 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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