Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LT -142 INST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.0 (+3.0) | 135.0 (+13.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -0.6 (+1.4) | 126.1 (+21.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.1 (+2.1) | 127.3 (+20.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.7 (+2.7) | 130.4 (+17.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | INST 60 – 51 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#302) | -0.7 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#230) | 1.32 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#241) | 1.88 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#297) | 0.560 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 16.7% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.