Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | INST -170 LT +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +9 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | INST -16.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -8.4 (+0.6) | 138.3 (-27.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.7 (-1.7) | 134.9 (-23.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -11.2 (-2.2) | 133.3 (-22.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -11.5 (-2.5) | 137.6 (-26.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2025 | LT 75 – 73 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#159) | -8.9 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#64) | -0.33 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#47) | -0.72 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#65) | 0.438 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 18.4% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 39.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 56.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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