Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -750 UTAH +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTAH +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -10.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -9.6 (-10.6) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -8.3 (-9.3) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -7.8 (-8.8) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -10.2 (-11.2) | 148.9 (+0.1) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-9 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#80) | -3.5 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#96) | -0.69 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#87) | -1.42 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#173) | 0.445 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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