Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -298 VCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -2.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -4.1 (+10.9) | 157.7 (+5.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -4.0 (+11.0) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.2 (+10.8) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -4.4 (+10.6) | 158.3 (+4.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | VCU 70 – 65 VAN |
| Nov 18, 2021 | VCU 48 – 37 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#17) | 13.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#4) | 1.19 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.12 (#4) | 2.31 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#44) | 0.556 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.27 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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