He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · November 27, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread NAU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money NAU -155 / SEMO +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual NAU +7 151 Won
Massey NAU -1.8 (+5.2)
Massey Totals 158.7 (-7.7)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 72%
Efficiency Plus ML NAU -1.6 (+5.4) 148.5 (+2.5) 59%
Baseline Tuned ML NAU -3.3 (+3.7) 147.8 (+3.2) 64%
Baseline ML NAU -3.3 (+3.7) 149.5 (+1.5) 66%
Baseline Plus ML NAU -2.8 (+4.2) 149.5 (+1.5) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU SEMO
Overall 10-22 20-13
Conference 4-14 14-6
Home 9-7 10-5
Away 1-13 8-7
Neutral 0-2 2-1
Last 5 1-2 1-4
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 68.1 73.2
Avg Pts Against 77.6 72.3
Massey -4.9 (#247) -1.0 (#187)
Bradley-Terry -0.63 (#229) -0.23 (#201)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#221) -0.33 (#199)
RPI 0.480 (#205) 0.552 (#107)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU SEMO
FG% 40.4% 44.5%
3PT% 37.1% 28.6%
REB / G 37.3 30.8
OREB / G 12.7 9.8
AST / TO 1.11 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.2% 49.7%
TOV% 15.9% 17.9%
ORB% 28.8% 26.9%
FT Rate 15.2% 22.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 58.1%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 21.4%
DRB% 67.9% 68.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 43.7%

Game Analysis

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