Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -155 SEMO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -1.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.6 (+5.4) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -3.3 (+3.7) | 147.8 (+3.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -3.3 (+3.7) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -2.8 (+4.2) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#247) | -1.0 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#229) | -0.23 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#221) | -0.33 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#205) | 0.552 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 43.7% |
Game Analysis
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