Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | RUTG +170 UNLV -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RUTG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RUTG +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -2.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -2.1 (+17.1) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -0.5 (+15.5) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -0.3 (+15.3) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -0.0 (+15.0) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RUTG | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#235) | -1.2 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#250) | -0.77 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#251) | -0.69 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#282) | 0.454 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RUTG | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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