Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -155 SDST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +12 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -3.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.7 (+13.7) | 133.9 (-17.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.5 (+13.5) | 132.4 (-16.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.3 (+14.3) | 133.2 (-17.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.1 (+14.1) | 135.4 (-19.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#186) | 2.2 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#276) | -0.18 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#218) | -0.05 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#177) | 0.460 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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