Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -650 SIU +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -3.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-32.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.5 (+11.5) | 157.0 (-25.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.1 (+12.9) | 151.3 (-19.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.8 (+13.2) | 151.3 (-19.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -3.0 (+13.0) | 155.1 (-23.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#140) | 4.4 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#278) | -0.39 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#267) | -0.17 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#154) | 0.455 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 23.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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