Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -44.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +57 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -32.8 (+24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -31.3 (+25.7) | 155.7 (-4.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LOU -28.2 (+28.8) | 157.9 (-6.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LOU -24.7 (+32.3) | 150.9 (+0.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -30.9 (+26.1) | 151.6 (-0.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#12) | -9.6 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#23) | -0.08 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#22) | -0.39 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#51) | 0.458 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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