Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CIT -102 HCU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | HCU -5.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -3.8 (-3.2) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HCU -4.9 (-2.1) | 134.5 (+2.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | HCU -3.2 (-3.8) | 136.0 (+1.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -2.8 (-4.2) | 135.9 (+1.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -15.0 (#354) | -4.2 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#345) | -1.26 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.73 (#345) | -2.13 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.297 (#363) | 0.407 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 12.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 84.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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