Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -2800 ALST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +6 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -13.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+33.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -15.1 (-9.1) | 147.0 (+33.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -10.2 (-4.2) | 143.0 (+37.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -11.1 (-5.1) | 144.4 (+35.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -11.7 (-5.7) | 145.9 (+34.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | -3.2 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#80) | 0.50 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#80) | 0.70 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#25) | 0.533 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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