Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -37.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +50 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UK -24.0 (+26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -23.0 (+27.0) | 148.0 (+10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UK -23.7 (+26.3) | 146.6 (+11.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UK -22.0 (+28.0) | 144.3 (+13.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -24.6 (+25.4) | 146.6 (+11.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#14) | -1.1 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#168) | -0.16 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#181) | -0.40 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#148) | 0.431 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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