Illinois State
Redbirds
79
–
69
FINAL
Neutral
Terry's Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
Charlotte
49ers
Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -230 CLT +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -6.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -4.7 (+5.3) | 135.4 (+12.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.8 (+5.2) | 135.0 (+13.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -3.7 (+6.3) | 136.3 (+11.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -3.6 (+6.4) | 135.9 (+12.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#86) | 0.2 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#206) | 0.11 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#208) | 0.77 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#164) | 0.524 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 15.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 42.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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