The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–19 on winners spread MAE 8.7 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +6.3 150.3 72% 83–79 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +18.7 162.3 96% 64–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +13.6 145.1 89% 71–60 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +0.5 151.7 52% 76–70 ✗
William & Mary @ Elon +6.3 153.1 72% 79–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State -8.3 136.7 22% 58–56 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +5.1 150.6 68% 81–73 ✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +6.9 142.1 74% 72–80 ✓
Duke @ Illinois -8.5 153.5 22% 110–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Missouri State -2.5 140.7 41% 70–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +4.6 141.8 66% 71–79 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +5.6 145.3 69% 76–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +11.7 134.8 86% 66–83 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +10.0 161.0 82% 74–92 ✓
Butler @ DePaul -2.6 150.7 41% 84–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +4.8 145.6 67% 62–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +9.3 137.9 80% 57–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +7.9 149.9 76% 64–66 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Oral Roberts -10.0 162.6 18% 66–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +3.4 147.9 62% 63–64 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +6.4 173.8 72% 85–93 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +6.7 143.9 73% 74–67 ✗
Missouri @ Arkansas -1.4 148.9 45% 85–92 ✗
Texas @ South Carolina -4.1 139.2 35% 69–84 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -5.6 138.2 31% 68–82 ✗
Montana @ Montana State +3.1 146.2 61% 89–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +6.9 141.6 74% 82–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.8 141.0 21% 73–64 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV -0.8 138.9 47% 61–53 ✓
California @ Stanford +6.3 151.2 72% 61–66 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +17.3 136.5 94% 44–83 ✓
BYU @ Arizona +7.7 155.4 76% 96–95 ✗
UConn @ St. John's +5.9 144.1 71% 75–89 ✓
North Texas @ South Florida -7.3 128.8 25% 64–57 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +7.1 152.4 74% 53–84 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -1.5 143.8 45% 65–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +7.5 145.2 75% 67–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Iona -1.0 126.7 46% 77–70 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana -4.4 147.2 34% 58–73 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +11.5 163.2 85% 65–84 ✓
Tulane @ Wichita State +4.2 145.1 65% 67–78 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +6.3 153.2 72% 89–96 ✓
Temple @ UAB +6.7 171.7 73% 64–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +4.7 140.2 66% 77–83 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall -10.9 136.7 16% 73–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +0.7 150.9 52% 59–72 ✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +13.3 149.1 89% 77–81 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +11.7 141.5 86% 65–70 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +15.2 144.7 92% 93–88 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan +0.1 159.0 50% 74–71 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +7.8 137.3 76% 72–79 ✓
Niagara @ Marist +8.6 131.8 78% 61–64 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Peter's +1.7 137.4 56% 79–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +1.3 130.4 55% 86–91 ✓
Ohio State @ UCLA +4.3 139.9 65% 61–69 ✓
Utah @ UCF +1.9 161.5 57% 72–76 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +3.2 146.5 61% 66–54 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa -0.6 125.4 48% 64–58 ✓
Georgetown @ Creighton +10.1 139.0 82% 69–80 ✓
USC @ Rutgers +1.4 154.4 55% 85–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.