← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

35–17 on winners spread MAE 9.1 52 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	+9.2	169.4	80%	61–82	✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian	+0.2	156.5	51%	81–77	✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood	+6.1	153.2	71%	77–90	✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point	+15.7	153.7	92%	60–83	✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia	+3.9	125.8	64%	59–62	✓
SMU @ Notre Dame	-3.5	151.6	38%	97–73	✓
NC State @ North Carolina	+11.6	149.2	86%	73–97	✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Washington	-0.3	142.4	49%	79–68	✓
Fordham @ Duquesne	+7.4	144.8	75%	64–73	✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State	+5.2	140.9	68%	60–62	✓
Evansville @ Indiana State	+7.2	150.6	74%	79–74	✗
Navy @ Colgate	+5.6	143.4	69%	75–79	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University	+4.0	131.6	64%	66–68	✓
Providence @ Georgetown	+2.4	137.8	59%	72–93	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy	+2.6	144.8	59%	80–71	✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga	+19.9	153.4	97%	86–91	✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State	+1.8	131.3	57%	49–65	✓
Mercer @ The Citadel	-7.8	149.8	24%	62–52	✓
East Carolina @ Tulane	+3.7	141.8	63%	81–86	✓
Northern Iowa @ Belmont	-0.6	157.6	48%	82–75	✓
UIC @ Drake	+10.0	136.0	82%	57–74	✓
Furman @ Samford	+7.7	151.4	76%	80–72	✗
UAB @ Rice	-1.1	155.7	46%	90–89	✓
South Florida @ UTSA	+3.2	154.7	61%	78–73	✗
Tulsa @ North Texas	+16.4	126.4	93%	44–63	✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso	+2.6	145.3	59%	64–66	✓
Bradley @ Illinois State	-1.5	147.1	45%	71–82	✗
South Alabama @ Arkansas State	+7.1	139.7	74%	60–56	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota	-5.1	180.6	32%	80–85	✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State	+5.6	159.0	69%	77–68	✗
Omaha @ Kansas City	+0.9	140.2	53%	78–66	✗
Oregon @ Iowa	-0.7	162.8	47%	80–78	✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State	+14.0	144.7	90%	63–80	✓
Arkansas @ Auburn	+17.1	150.8	94%	60–67	✓
Alabama @ Missouri	-0.1	172.4	50%	98–110	✗
St. John's @ DePaul	-11.3	145.5	15%	82–58	✓
UCF @ Oklahoma State	-0.7	160.2	47%	95–104	✗
Miami @ Florida State	+10.5	158.4	83%	66–74	✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State	-13.5	164.9	11%	84–63	✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver	+3.2	152.1	62%	60–71	✓
San José State @ Utah State	+15.5	153.9	92%	57–105	✓
New Mexico @ Boise State	+2.8	152.4	60%	78–86	✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's	+27.9	140.9	99%	66–79	✓
Rutgers @ Washington	+0.9	150.4	53%	89–85	✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion	-4.3	144.3	35%	81–77	✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell	+5.9	169.9	71%	79–98	✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton	+9.8	139.2	81%	60–79	✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State	+9.5	145.1	81%	70–49	✗
Maine @ UAlbany	-1.6	140.3	44%	68–79	✗
Georgia Southern @ App State	+10.7	136.2	83%	74–79	✓
Drexel @ Delaware	+0.7	147.6	52%	78–74	✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine	-9.4	161.3	20%	74–80	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.