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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–11 on winners spread MAE 8.7 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ South Carolina -7.1 133.0 26% 67–61 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Iona +14.3 136.6 90% 54–74 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia +3.5 147.7 62% 62–78 ✓
Boston College @ North Carolina +10.8 141.9 84% 61–85 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +9.5 153.9 81% 76–87 ✓
Lafayette @ Colgate +12.3 134.6 87% 61–79 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +7.1 146.0 74% 81–70 ✗
Georgetown @ Villanova +10.3 140.9 82% 48–80 ✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central +13.4 135.9 89% 59–89 ✓
LSU @ Georgia -0.5 136.7 48% 72–67 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -3.2 147.7 39% 81–76 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +7.9 133.1 76% 78–75 ✗
Stanford @ Utah +2.5 134.8 59% 73–62 ✗
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State +2.7 145.2 60% 66–62 ✗
UTSA @ Rice +5.8 160.7 70% 71–72 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Rider +6.6 128.4 73% 70–62 ✗
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +1.3 132.7 55% 49–57 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State +1.8 150.2 57% 77–97 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +6.1 139.8 71% 78–85 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona State +10.9 127.7 84% 57–63 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo +13.1 162.1 88% 75–91 ✓
Davidson @ VCU +5.8 133.6 70% 53–71 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +9.0 164.6 79% 70–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami +4.8 161.1 67% 72–74 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan -1.9 132.2 43% 62–50 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +1.3 133.8 55% 78–72 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida +3.1 141.1 61% 73–58 ✗
Mississippi State @ Florida -1.0 126.2 46% 69–68 ✓
Ohio @ Ball State -1.0 152.2 46% 90–70 ✓
George Mason @ Saint Louis +2.4 141.8 59% 54–82 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Duke +3.7 137.9 63% 69–96 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +1.2 160.5 54% 73–69 ✗
Colorado @ UCLA +10.1 131.0 82% 69–80 ✓
Providence @ UConn +7.8 149.3 76% 66–73 ✓
Colorado State @ San Diego State +9.1 140.4 80% 61–64 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State -2.6 136.8 41% 60–62 ✗
SMU @ UCF +11.1 139.1 84% 70–76 ✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston +7.4 121.0 75% 51–64 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +11.6 128.6 85% 51–75 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +2.7 150.3 60% 61–78 ✓
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +15.5 126.5 92% 55–70 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +12.4 140.4 87% 57–76 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +9.4 134.7 80% 54–60 ✓
San José State @ Nevada +5.0 131.5 67% 81–77 ✗
Washington State @ Oregon +1.2 134.4 54% 70–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -1.6 137.3 44% 84–79 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton +0.2 124.6 51% 60–62 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +3.2 136.3 62% 64–80 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +13.3 144.6 89% 51–75 ✓
Penn State @ Illinois +2.2 145.1 58% 79–76 ✗
Buffalo @ Akron +5.9 147.2 70% 77–101 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.