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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–13 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma State
@
Texas
|
+6.2 | 140.2 | 71% | 47–61 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Virginia
|
+0.7 | 133.0 | 52% | 59–68 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Xavier
|
+13.0 | 160.4 | 88% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Auburn
|
-1.5 | 140.7 | 45% | 76–73 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-0.9 | 127.0 | 47% | 65–66 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Wichita State
|
+13.3 | 138.7 | 89% | 63–81 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Quinnipiac
|
+7.6 | 138.6 | 76% | 75–59 | ✗ |
La Salle
@
Fordham
|
+4.8 | 143.9 | 67% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+9.6 | 158.3 | 81% | 56–73 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Vanderbilt
|
+5.1 | 141.3 | 68% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
North Texas
|
+8.1 | 121.3 | 77% | 46–74 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Boise State
|
+6.0 | 138.7 | 71% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Utah Valley
|
+7.3 | 138.4 | 75% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+10.4 | 124.5 | 83% | 54–64 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Arizona
|
+8.8 | 157.1 | 79% | 84–95 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Maryland
|
+14.9 | 131.8 | 91% | 54–70 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Kansas State
|
+0.8 | 147.5 | 53% | 80–67 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Southern
|
+3.4 | 140.6 | 62% | 77–63 | ✗ |
Rice
@
UAB
|
+12.5 | 166.7 | 87% | 60–87 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Siena
|
+3.7 | 129.7 | 63% | 71–65 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
-1.9 | 150.0 | 43% | 54–80 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Creighton
|
+6.0 | 136.2 | 71% | 74–87 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Utah State
|
+2.7 | 163.6 | 60% | 76–91 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Southern Utah
|
+4.1 | 161.5 | 64% | 75–76 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC Riverside
|
-0.1 | 149.6 | 50% | 52–68 | ✗ |
Arizona State
@
USC
|
+2.2 | 140.6 | 58% | 77–72 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Purdue
|
+4.3 | 123.3 | 65% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Middle Tennessee
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+10.1 | 141.8 | 82% | 65–68 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
Houston
|
+21.7 | 128.6 | 98% | 46–60 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Alabama
|
+10.0 | 138.7 | 82% | 49–72 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan State
|
+1.3 | 139.4 | 55% | 68–58 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Alabama A&M
|
-0.4 | 141.8 | 49% | 74–61 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Cincinnati
|
+5.2 | 144.2 | 68% | 54–84 | ✓ |
|
UAB
@
North Texas
|
+0.8 | 132.3 | 53% | 76–69 | ✗ |
Tennessee
@
Missouri
|
-11.2 | 144.1 | 15% | 71–79 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
+4.5 | 166.1 | 66% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Howard
|
+1.1 | 139.0 | 54% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Iona
|
+13.4 | 134.3 | 89% | 59–71 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Marquette
|
-4.4 | 152.1 | 34% | 68–70 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Northwestern
|
+0.8 | 132.7 | 53% | 67–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.