Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | VAN -190 LSU +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -5.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -4.3 (+4.7) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -4.1 (+4.9) | 141.0 (+4.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -5.0 (+4.0) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.9 (+4.1) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | VAN 84 – 73 LSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAN 80 – 72 LSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LSU 75 – 61 VAN |
| Jan 10, 2024 | LSU 77 – 69 VAN |
| Feb 23, 2023 | LSU 84 – 77 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#86) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#57) | 0.47 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#68) | 0.50 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#47) | 0.488 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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