Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | LSU +115 VAN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -0.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -0.1 (+7.1) | 140.3 (+20.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -0.4 (+6.6) | 139.4 (+21.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -0.3 (+6.7) | 139.1 (+21.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.2 (+7.2) | 140.8 (+20.2) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | VAN 84 – 73 LSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAN 80 – 72 LSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LSU 75 – 61 VAN |
| Jan 10, 2024 | LSU 77 – 69 VAN |
| Mar 10, 2023 | VAN 77 – 68 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-6 |
| Away | 0-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | 5.5 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#135) | 1.46 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#146) | 1.55 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.577 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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