Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -210 VILL +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -6.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -4.7 (+8.3) | 138.6 (+22.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -4.1 (+8.9) | 136.5 (+24.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -5.2 (+7.8) | 137.7 (+23.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -5.0 (+8.0) | 139.7 (+21.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#12) | 8.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#39) | 1.17 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#30) | 1.55 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#50) | 0.531 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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