Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -145 UMES +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +19 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -1.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.0 (+18.0) | 140.4 (-11.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.8 (+17.2) | 137.8 (-8.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.0 (+18.0) | 138.2 (-9.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.7 (+18.3) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#228) | -4.2 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#174) | -0.04 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#204) | -0.28 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#156) | 0.524 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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