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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–11 on winners spread MAE 8.7 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa State @ Kansas +2.7 131.0 60% 58–71 ✓
Duke @ Miami -2.8 145.1 40% 85–78 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M -1.3 140.3 45% 61–67 ✗
UCF @ Memphis +1.4 145.5 55% 76–81 ✓
Akron @ Kent State +3.0 135.6 61% 73–79 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's -1.2 122.2 46% 69–57 ✓
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central +1.3 141.2 55% 72–65 ✗
Oregon @ UCLA +8.2 134.7 77% 56–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Sam Houston +5.4 129.0 69% 78–75 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +2.4 136.4 59% 83–80 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier -2.8 156.4 40% 60–82 ✗
Maryland @ Indiana -0.7 137.9 48% 60–70 ✗
San José State @ San Diego State +7.6 130.1 76% 49–64 ✓
Jackson State @ Grambling +7.1 132.7 74% 69–78 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia +2.0 128.9 57% 56–76 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +6.1 146.7 71% 80–73 ✗
TCU @ Texas +4.5 146.8 66% 60–66 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulane +0.2 152.6 51% 76–82 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +3.5 155.2 63% 89–88 ✗
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +2.4 138.3 58% 87–92 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +7.2 156.0 74% 59–78 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State -0.8 143.9 47% 72–62 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +4.2 143.1 65% 59–72 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +7.7 154.8 76% 60–80 ✓
Missouri @ Alabama +12.2 168.1 87% 61–72 ✓
Ohio State @ Purdue +5.8 138.5 70% 66–80 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard -1.4 146.2 45% 64–65 ✗
Saint Louis @ VCU +2.9 140.9 60% 78–90 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +5.5 149.4 69% 70–77 ✓
Cincinnati @ Houston +11.9 133.9 86% 48–69 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana +2.6 145.0 59% 77–73 ✗
Fordham @ Dayton +6.6 129.6 72% 68–78 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M +5.6 142.3 69% 75–87 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling +6.8 133.7 73% 61–58 ✗
Tulane @ Memphis +7.4 166.7 75% 54–94 ✓
Texas @ Kansas -0.8 146.8 47% 76–56 ✓
Utah State @ San Diego State +0.7 143.9 53% 57–62 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +1.2 165.0 54% 51–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.