Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | XAV +158 CREI -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +22 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -2.1 (+24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -2.0 (+24.0) | 153.7 (-11.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.6 (+23.6) | 151.2 (-9.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -1.5 (+23.5) | 153.5 (-11.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.8 (+23.8) | 153.6 (-11.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#19) | 15.4 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#18) | 1.97 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#10) | 2.72 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#16) | 0.580 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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