Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -130 USU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -0.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.2 (+4.8) | 138.5 (-19.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.7 (+4.3) | 136.3 (-17.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -0.2 (+5.2) | 140.2 (-21.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -0.2 (+5.2) | 136.2 (-17.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#21) | 12.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#13) | 2.33 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#19) | 2.94 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#6) | 0.617 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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