Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -110 NORF -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -1.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -1.0 (-8.0) | 138.6 (-1.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.2 (-7.2) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.6 (-8.6) | 140.5 (-3.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -1.7 (-8.7) | 141.1 (-4.1) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#170) | -1.1 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#174) | 0.16 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#174) | 0.04 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.532 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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