Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | HOW +115 NORF -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -1.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.2 (+2.2) | 143.6 (-14.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -1.7 (+2.7) | 141.5 (-12.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.6 (+1.6) | 144.4 (-15.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -0.8 (+1.8) | 144.6 (-15.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#219) | -1.1 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#167) | 0.16 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#190) | 0.04 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#149) | 0.532 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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