Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Over |
| Money | SPU +100 MRST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +12 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -0.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.8 (-11.2) | 127.7 (-1.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.2 (-12.2) | 125.5 (+0.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.5 (-11.5) | 128.7 (-2.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -0.7 (-11.3) | 130.0 (-4.0) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#297) | -6.5 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#279) | -1.35 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#286) | -1.64 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#283) | 0.439 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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