Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | MARQ -130 XAV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +14 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -0.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-46.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.5 (+13.5) | 155.8 (-39.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.3 (+13.7) | 154.6 (-38.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.6 (+13.4) | 157.3 (-41.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.4 (+13.6) | 153.8 (-37.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#14) | 13.3 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#8) | 2.44 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#7) | 3.45 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#21) | 0.605 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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