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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–5 on winners
spread MAE 12.1
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kent State
@
Toledo
|
-1.2 | 155.5 | 46% | 93–78 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Iona
|
+14.7 | 136.0 | 91% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Virginia
|
-0.8 | 122.8 | 47% | 59–49 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+3.2 | 156.7 | 62% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+0.9 | 133.8 | 53% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
UCLA
|
+3.9 | 150.5 | 64% | 61–59 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Southern Utah
|
+1.0 | 156.0 | 54% | 84–66 | ✗ |
Princeton
@
Yale
|
+6.2 | 141.1 | 71% | 74–65 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Alabama
|
+8.0 | 149.8 | 77% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
-0.2 | 124.7 | 49% | 56–68 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+10.6 | 139.0 | 83% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Purdue
|
+6.5 | 138.1 | 72% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.