Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | UCSB -145 CSUF +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -1.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.5 (+9.5) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.7 (+9.3) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.8 (+9.2) | 138.0 (-4.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.6 (+9.4) | 139.3 (-5.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#109) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#90) | 0.54 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#100) | 0.53 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#103) | 0.535 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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