Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -115 KENT -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KENT +15 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | KENT -1.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KENT -1.6 (-13.4) | 153.8 (+17.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KENT -0.5 (-14.5) | 152.2 (+18.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KENT -1.4 (-13.6) | 152.8 (+18.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KENT -1.7 (-13.3) | 154.0 (+17.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | KENT 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 16, 2026 | KENT 87 – 84 TOL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KENT 105 – 65 TOL |
| Jan 22, 2025 | KENT 83 – 64 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2024 | KENT 67 – 59 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#83) | 8.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#66) | 1.76 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#80) | 1.80 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#43) | 0.594 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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