Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | UCSB -155 UCR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +5 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -2.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+42.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -2.5 (+2.5) | 137.7 (+41.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.6 (+3.4) | 134.0 (+45.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.3 (+2.7) | 138.3 (+40.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.5 (+2.5) | 139.6 (+39.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#110) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#95) | 0.68 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#102) | 0.47 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#108) | 0.532 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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