Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | IU -175 PSU +148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -3.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -1.2 (-5.2) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -1.8 (-5.8) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -1.9 (-5.9) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -2.1 (-6.1) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | IU 113 – 72 PSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | IU 83 – 78 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | IU 77 – 71 PSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | IU 61 – 59 PSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PSU 83 – 74 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#23) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#23) | 1.86 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#27) | 2.32 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#32) | 0.556 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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