Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Home covered |
| Money | USU -170 UNM +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | USU -2.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.8 (+12.2) | 154.2 (+12.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.3 (+11.7) | 153.8 (+13.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.7 (+11.3) | 155.8 (+11.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.2 (+11.8) | 154.2 (+12.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#27) | 10.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#27) | 1.57 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#22) | 1.95 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#12) | 0.572 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.