Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -215 OHIO +178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.4 (+4.6) | 160.3 (-3.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.4 (+3.6) | 158.0 (-1.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.9 (+3.1) | 162.2 (-5.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.4 (+3.6) | 162.4 (-5.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 10-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#83) | 2.6 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#73) | 0.14 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#81) | 0.14 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#56) | 0.514 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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