Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UNT +105 UAB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -0.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.9 (-7.9) | 129.3 (+15.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -0.4 (-7.4) | 128.5 (+16.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -0.3 (-7.3) | 133.5 (+11.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -0.4 (-6.6) | 133.3 (+11.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#66) | 9.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#35) | 1.50 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#47) | 1.90 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#22) | 0.557 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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