Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | ALA -305 MSST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +23 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -10.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -7.2 (+15.8) | 140.0 (-19.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -7.3 (+15.7) | 139.9 (-18.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -8.9 (+14.1) | 138.7 (-17.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.3 (+13.7) | 139.5 (-18.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#2) | 10.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#3) | 1.84 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#4) | 2.22 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#1) | 0.563 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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