Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | XAV -900 DEP +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -12.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -11.0 (-6.0) | 154.7 (+18.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -10.8 (-5.8) | 154.7 (+18.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -11.3 (-6.3) | 154.8 (+18.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.1 (-6.1) | 154.1 (+18.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#19) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#19) | 0.06 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#10) | 0.13 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#18) | 0.475 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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