Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | MARQ +143 CONN -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.2 (+4.2) | 149.3 (-11.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.2 (+5.2) | 145.1 (-7.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.7 (+4.7) | 150.0 (-12.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -2.6 (+4.6) | 149.4 (-11.4) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#14) | 18.2 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#8) | 2.63 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#8) | 3.59 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#20) | 0.594 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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