Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -160 UCD +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +16 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -0.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.4 (+15.6) | 144.9 (-24.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -0.3 (+15.7) | 141.9 (-21.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -0.3 (+15.7) | 145.8 (-25.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.1 (+15.9) | 145.2 (-25.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UCD 78 – 73 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UCD 74 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCD 75 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UCR 60 – 58 UCD |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCR 67 – 61 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#144) | 1.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#117) | -0.04 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#144) | 0.14 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#122) | 0.509 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.